At the heart of a terrorist attack is surprise. Terrorist organizations adapt and change methods based on responses to previous attacks. The next Al Quaeda attack probably will not include planes and skyscrapers. Once the terror is known, it loses its element of surprise.
In his 2008 report “Marrying Prevention and Resiliency: Balancing Approaches to an Uncertain Terrorist Threat,” Rand Corporation author Brian A. Jackson suggests that the best defense includes accepting that defensive measures might fail.
Jackson suggests supplementing attack prevention measures with resiliency procedures.
“Mitigation and resiliency measures are designed to reduce the impact of a damaging event when it occurs and to make it possible for key infrastructures, economic activities, and other parts of society to rapidly bounce back.”
Some attacks will succeed, he says. The best response to this reality is to soften the consequences. Rather than investing Dept. Homeland Security funds completely in prevention, the idea is to dampen the blow and ensure facilities, supply chains and economic institutions “bounce back.”
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